Comments on: Extreme weather, extreme prices: what will more erratic weather do to food prices? http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620 duncan green poverty to power oxfam development Fri, 24 May 2013 16:49:22 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: Rajan Alexander http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620&cpage=1#comment-239478 Rajan Alexander Fri, 07 Sep 2012 11:20:39 +0000 http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620#comment-239478 "Climate change will also lead to an increase in extreme weather, such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. As today’s US drought lays bare, extreme weather can wipe out harvests and drive up prices precipitously in the short term." Take a look at USDA graph: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/521847/cornuse.jpg -Corn harvests have been steadily increasing over the years clearly establishing that warming augurs well for agriculture. viz. There is no negative impact of climate on agriculture. - If at all there is less supply for corn as food, it is only because they are increasingly diverted for bio-fuels that permit the West to drive "Green" cars. These NGOs advocacy programmes are based on lies, lies and more lies. Their "climate solutions" create food shortage and then they totally disingenuously spin these shortages as caused by climate changes. These NGOs benefit two ways. By creating hunger through "climate solutions" they get funds and for responding to hunger crisis, they get funding. This is intellectual corruption at its worse showing that they hardly have any compassion for the poor and the suffering. All they care is their careers, salaries & perks. “Climate change will also lead to an increase in extreme weather, such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. As today’s US drought lays bare, extreme weather can wipe out harvests and drive up prices precipitously in the short term.”

Take a look at USDA graph: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/521847/cornuse.jpg

-Corn harvests have been steadily increasing over the years clearly establishing that warming augurs well for agriculture. viz. There is no negative impact of climate on agriculture.
- If at all there is less supply for corn as food, it is only because they are increasingly diverted for bio-fuels that permit the West to drive “Green” cars.

These NGOs advocacy programmes are based on lies, lies and more lies. Their “climate solutions” create food shortage and then they totally disingenuously spin these shortages as caused by climate changes.

These NGOs benefit two ways. By creating hunger through “climate solutions” they get funds and for responding to hunger crisis, they get funding. This is intellectual corruption at its worse showing that they hardly have any compassion for the poor and the suffering. All they care is their careers, salaries & perks.

]]> By: Eamonn Casey http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620&cpage=1#comment-238281 Eamonn Casey Wed, 05 Sep 2012 10:29:11 +0000 http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620#comment-238281 The analysis also doesn't bring out very clearly the role that commodity and food price speculation may play - unless this is implicit in the idea of 'stress testing' the global food system or 'building the resilience of markets'. These markets, and the people behind the invisible hand of the markets, will surely create the possibility of massive profits for some from speculation, hoarding and 'timely' distribution or sale of global food stocks (as it does in national and regional contexts now) - and require regulation, not just resilience, of markets? The analysis also doesn’t bring out very clearly the role that commodity and food price speculation may play – unless this is implicit in the idea of ’stress testing’ the global food system or ‘building the resilience of markets’. These markets, and the people behind the invisible hand of the markets, will surely create the possibility of massive profits for some from speculation, hoarding and ‘timely’ distribution or sale of global food stocks (as it does in national and regional contexts now) – and require regulation, not just resilience, of markets?

]]> By: Andrew Dorward http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620&cpage=1#comment-238227 Andrew Dorward Wed, 05 Sep 2012 08:36:12 +0000 http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620#comment-238227 Thanks for this post on a really important topic. It is good to see the Oxfam report going beyond discussion of 'food price increases' to discuss the specific impacts of food price rises on poor and food insecure people. However the common use of food price indices to look at food price changes is unfortunately very misleading. At the risk of being a wonk, these indices measure changes in food prices relative to changes in prices of other things that people buy, commonly the things that less poor people buy. What matters most to people, however, is how food prices change relative to incomes, and this is most important for the poor. We therefore need models, analysis and commentary on how food prices have changed and will change relative to people's income. Food prices have not fallen much in the past 100 years for those who are poor. I fear that we will find that price rises in the future will be higher for the poor than suggested in the analysis reported here - but I would be very happy to be proved wrong. For more on this please see a couple of briefing papers at http://www.future-agricultures.org/publications/research-and-analysis/policy-briefs/doc_download/1550-agricultural-labour-productivity-and-food-prices-fundamental-development-impacts-and-indicators and http://www.future-agricultures.org/publications/research-and-analysis/policy-briefs/doc_download/1549-the-short-and-medium-term-impacts-of-rises-in-staple-food-prices Andrew Thanks for this post on a really important topic. It is good to see the Oxfam report going beyond discussion of ‘food price increases’ to discuss the specific impacts of food price rises on poor and food insecure people.
However the common use of food price indices to look at food price changes is unfortunately very misleading. At the risk of being a wonk, these indices measure changes in food prices relative to changes in prices of other things that people buy, commonly the things that less poor people buy. What matters most to people, however, is how food prices change relative to incomes, and this is most important for the poor. We therefore need models, analysis and commentary on how food prices have changed and will change relative to people’s income. Food prices have not fallen much in the past 100 years for those who are poor. I fear that we will find that price rises in the future will be higher for the poor than suggested in the analysis reported here – but I would be very happy to be proved wrong.

For more on this please see a couple of briefing papers at
http://www.future-agricultures.org/publications/research-and-analysis/policy-briefs/doc_download/1550-agricultural-labour-productivity-and-food-prices-fundamental-development-impacts-and-indicators and http://www.future-agricultures.org/publications/research-and-analysis/policy-briefs/doc_download/1549-the-short-and-medium-term-impacts-of-rises-in-staple-food-prices

Andrew

]]> By: Ros Hirschowitz http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620&cpage=1#comment-238198 Ros Hirschowitz Wed, 05 Sep 2012 07:27:33 +0000 http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=11620#comment-238198 Interesting juxtapositions of climate change and food shortages. But I think that there are fundamental considerations left out of the current debate. This is the role that the international financial institutions such as the World Bank played in supporting the destruction of agriculture as it was practiced locally in developing countries. In Africa for example, subsistence and small-scale farming was actively discouraged in favour of commercial farming. In addition, producction for local needs was discouraged, while export-driven agriculture was in vogue. Local knowledge and farming methods that were survival strategies for centuries were deemed inappropriate for modernization. Coffee production for example replaced local crops. Surely these policies are at least to some extent to blame for the food shortages and climate change that we face today. Interesting juxtapositions of climate change and food shortages. But I think that there are fundamental considerations left out of the current debate. This is the role that the international financial institutions such as the World Bank played in supporting the destruction of agriculture as it was practiced locally in developing countries. In Africa for example, subsistence and small-scale farming was actively discouraged in favour of commercial farming. In addition, producction for local needs was discouraged, while export-driven agriculture was in vogue. Local knowledge and farming methods that were survival strategies for centuries were deemed inappropriate for modernization. Coffee production for example replaced local crops. Surely these policies are at least to some extent to blame for the food shortages and climate change that we face today.

]]>